Ira, Crimson Haze at Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025

Ira, Crimson Haze

24 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ian Zhang

3rd • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Roman Pinegin (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adrien Kurek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ugnius Švedas (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.27

Louis Guillot

13th • 5-1-1

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Salina Vaes (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jeroen Caspers (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Adrien Kurek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Carlos Carrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-

Dimitri Francois

9th • 5-2-0

14%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emanuele Damiani (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Fedir Kokhan (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.75
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.25
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Francesco Giorgio

10th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ben Dadon (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Tim McCarthy

18th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Red Itärinne (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jorge Monteiro (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Adrien Kurek

21st • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Koutsos (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Anton Figueroa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Brent Van de Staey

32nd • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Rosemin (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nathanaël frederic (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Mattia Vigliarolo

35th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Irvine (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Antonio Kutter (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jose Alves (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jaka Burnik

36th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Levia) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrea Malpassi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jordy Pereira (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Amadeus Landin

39th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Alves (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Levia) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Roman Pinegin (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.75
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Laurens Van der Beek

43rd • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Ray (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Antoine Pech (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Koutsos (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tam Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hadrien Ravelinghien (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrea Malpassi

47th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Federico Lami (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jeroen Caspers (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hadrien Ravelinghien (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daja Todesco (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jaka Burnik (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Tam Pham

58th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Dadon (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Eric Lundh (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bruno Mendes (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Christel David

63rd • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fedir Kokhan (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Rickard (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs diego santiago (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dylan Koutsos (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.75
R5	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.25
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Mihai Zorila

69th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daja Todesco (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexandre Lebec (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Roman Pinegin (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.09
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

David Alfonso

75th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Lebec (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Levia) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Charlotte Little (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Miguel Cardoso (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Hadrien Ravelinghien

76th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan DUMONT

78th • 2-5-0

14%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Red Itärinne (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Fredrik Mecklin (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Emanuele Damiani (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.09
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Charlotte Little

79th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.27

Pierre-André Joly

80th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Riccardo Rotondo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs diego santiago (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Hadrien Ravelinghien (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Eric Lundh (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Piergiorgio Villani

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jasan araury Romero Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.79
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emanuele Tozzi

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Raphael Comet (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paolo Auria (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Riccardo Rotondo

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Koutsos (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Lukas Knirschnig

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jorge Monteiro (Pleiades) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.