Oldhim at Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025

Oldhim

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Antonio Kutter

5th • 6-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anton Figueroa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.34
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Fedir Kokhan

19th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emanuele Damiani (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Red Itärinne (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89, underdog victory

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Win	✗	0.89	2.26
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Alexandre Lebec

73rd • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs diego santiago (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Raphael Comet (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Daniel Winning

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Paolo Auria (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Briar) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Rafa Lopez Martinez

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bruno Mendes (Azalea) - Expected: 72:28

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Briar) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.