Oldhim at Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025

Oldhim

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Antonio Kutter

5th • 6-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Harle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anton Figueroa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.27
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Fedir Kokhan

19th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emanuele Damiani (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Red Itärinne (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.09
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Alexandre Lebec

73rd • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs diego santiago (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Raphael Comet (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Daniel Winning

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Paolo Auria (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Rafa Lopez Martinez

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bruno Mendes (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Briar) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.