Bravo, Flattering Showman at Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025

Bravo, Flattering Showman

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Arthur Trehet

5th • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Ray (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Antonio Briola (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jordy Pereira (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Raphael Comet (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Mariano Rivero

5th • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Winning (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.82
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Carlos Carrero

11th • 5-1-1

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Charlotte Little (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hadrien Ravelinghien (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jose Alves (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Irvine (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Draw	✓	0.49	-

Anton Figueroa

30th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jose Alves (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ugnius Švedas (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adrien Kurek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Benjamin Westmore

37th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ben Dadon (Iyslander) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.20
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Simone Quartieri

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 54:46

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.