Bravo, Flattering Showman at Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025

Bravo, Flattering Showman

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Arthur Trehet

5th • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Ray (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 16:84

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Antonio Briola (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jordy Pereira (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Raphael Comet (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Mariano Rivero

5th • 6-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Winning (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Carlos Carrero

11th • 5-1-1

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Charlotte Little (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hadrien Ravelinghien (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Chane) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jose Alves (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Irvine (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-

Anton Figueroa

30th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jose Alves (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ugnius Švedas (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adrien Kurek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Benjamin Westmore

37th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ben Dadon (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.51
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Simone Quartieri

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.