Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025 - Briar (SAGE)

Briar

27 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kim Scheerer

5th • 7-0-0

100%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Federico Sirri (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Enes Findik

2nd • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jasan araury Romero Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jordy Pereira (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ben Dadon (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Felix Krisch

15th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nathanaël frederic (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Denis Gergov (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raphael Comet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mathew Davies

17th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Edward Catling (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Federico Sirri (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jean Luka Zorko

20th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dimitri Francois (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bruno Mendes (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Simone Pirota (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.77

Pierre Canali

22nd • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ben Dadon (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jasan araury Romero Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.48

Jordy Pereira

25th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs None ()

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Ray (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Tigran Grigorian

26th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Malpassi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Denis Gergov (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Federico Sirri

27th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rafa Lopez Martinez (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Paolo Auria (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.68
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Raphael Comet

29th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emanuele Tozzi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marcello Mutalipassi (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Koutsos (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.35
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Paolo Auria

40th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Antonio Briola (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emanuele Tozzi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Winning (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.01
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dylan Koutsos

41st • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raphael Comet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Adrien Kurek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Thomas Steinle

42nd • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ugnius Švedas (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Anton Figueroa (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Jasan araury Romero Gómez

45th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Federico Lami (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Antonio Briola (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bruno Mendes (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.77

Fredrik Mecklin

48th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Amadeus Landin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bastian Henneberg

50th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raphael Comet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Ray (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Antonio Briola (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.30
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.77

diego santiago

51st • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Roman Pinegin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.34
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Javier Querol

52nd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hadrien Ravelinghien (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Roman Pinegin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs marco guerra (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Amadeus Landin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Miguel Cardoso

65th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jordy Pereira (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Correas (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Amadeus Landin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Daniel Correas

67th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Franco (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Miguel Cardoso (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hadrien Ravelinghien (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.68
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Guilherme Coutinho

68th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ugnius Švedas (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jeroen Caspers (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dídac Fernández Cadenas (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Steffen Bauer (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs marco guerra (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R7	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Roman Pinegin

72nd • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Amadeus Landin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Victor Lima (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs diego santiago (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.77
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Andrew Irvine

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mattia Vigliarolo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs None ()

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rafa Lopez Martinez (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.42
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Hayden Rickard

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christel David (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Dídac Fernández Cadenas

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Pleiades) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matteo Brunori

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marcus Rosemin (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.