Battle Hardened: Valencia 2025 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Oliver Kuhrt

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lewis Miller (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Richard Carr (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Edward Catling

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mathew Davies (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Azalea) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Leoluca Colletti

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Salina Vaes (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jorge Monteiro (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Salina Vaes

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Leoluca Colletti (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.