Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Calling: Shizuoka 2025

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

EIKI SUGAI

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jian Wei Tee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs タカユキアサヒナ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

10:90

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryota Kitanaka (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 9:91

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Akihiro Takano

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs OH Youngjin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 9:91, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 奏石丸 (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hiroaki Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs tim Lin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	10%	Win	✗	0.91	0.99
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Masaaki Yamanobe

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 智行内海 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daichi Fujita (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs 守山下 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.30
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.13
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

TAKAMASA OISHI

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joniel Ibasco (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 佐藤宗良 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 理央鎌田 (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 一樹日浦 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

kouki miura

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 佐藤宗良 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.