Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Manuel Wachouschek

9th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yoan Falquet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Vicquéry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michaël Emery (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.17
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.46

Kevin Steiger

10th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ivan Bötschi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Patrick Jud (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Michael Frochaux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.71

Lukas Horber

14th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs André Kofmel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michaël Emery (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Patrik Koller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.77
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.50
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Maurice Hostettler

27th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Poffet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Wachouschek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.42
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Patrick Jud

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Mévillot (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ivan Bötschi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Vicquéry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.89
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Mévillot

dropped • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Jud (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Henri Laigo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs André Kofmel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Diogo Vala

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.90
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Igor Koutzevitch

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Schwarz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Julien Gremion

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Clark (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michaël Emery (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.