National Championship 2025 - Switzerland - Fang, Dracai of Blades (CC)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nico Grieco

22nd • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

5.3

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Clark (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Niels Rohrer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.57
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Win	✗	0.79	3.36

Basile Massaly

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Wachouschek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Christopher Clark

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julien Gremion (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Bötschi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.