National Championship 2025 - Switzerland - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC) - FaB-Results

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

5th • 6-1-0

57%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pascal Weinmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Frochaux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.22
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.16
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.65
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.56
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Theo Montero Ciscar

23rd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Schwarz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32

Dash I/O

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Henri Laigo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Puffin, Hightail

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.05
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.40

18th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Basile Massaly (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

Kano, Dracai of Aether

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Poffet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.25
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.28

dropped • 1-1-1

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Patrik Koller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Kano, Dracai of Aether

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Fang, Dracai of Blades

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Clark (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.