Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025 - Switzerland

Puffin, Hightail

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

5th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Frochaux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lukas Horber (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Mévillot (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Kano, Dracai of Aether

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

5:95

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96

Dash I/O

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.89
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Frédérick Cognard

28th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.6

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Schwarz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Dorinthea Ironsong

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrei Meshkov-Pervikov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Henri Laigo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.49

Sebastian Spicher

25th • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 7:93

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.