Dash I/O at National Championship 2025

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lars Seebacher

3rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michaël Emery (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs André Kofmel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.67
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.49
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Michael Wachouschek

20th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Basile Massaly (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kevin Schwarz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.89
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.29

Florian Badertscher

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thierry Mévillot (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.