Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kevin Schwarz

30th • 0-6-0

50%

Meta

-3.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Igor Koutzevitch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frédérick Cognard (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Henri Laigo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Wachouschek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Thomas G Jud

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Angus Sünner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pascal Weinmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.80
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Yoan Falquet

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrei Meshkov-Pervikov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.