National Championship 2025 - Switzerland - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Estarlin Cruz

3rd • 7-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Basile Massaly (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lukas Horber (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michaël Emery (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.23
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.24
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.39
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.37
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Ralph Schlauri

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Frochaux (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs André Kofmel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.08
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.51
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Stefan Bonk

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lukas Horber (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Moser (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.