Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Christian Poffet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.