Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jin Han Toh

10th • 4-1-1

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jayden Yap (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yu Heng Chew (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Melvin Chew (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Ooi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jose Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Draw vs Gordon Koh Koh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.66
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Gordon Koh Koh

12th • 4-1-1

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kok Tong Chew (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kelvin Tan (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Seb Kho (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs shao hong koh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Clinton Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Draw vs Jin Han Toh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.75
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.30
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Kai Yang Yuen

26th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clarence Foo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aloysius Goh (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Teo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Zac Lau (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ping How Ng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Soh zheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.73	3.74

Andre Ang

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dale Low (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yong Lim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.30
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Daren Choo

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yu Heng Chew (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darrell Yeo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Darren Goh

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alaric Ng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gideon Law (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fu Kah Deng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Kaiser Tan

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fu Kah Deng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lee koon Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thaddius Ho (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Theodore Tan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Toh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.21
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Marco Ng

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Cheong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vivekraj Kannalagan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Ben Ong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Draw	✗	0.27	-

Chu Heng Eng

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Lee (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs An Zhu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Kok Tong Chew

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Avinash Vellavan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ping How Ng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.