Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Ooi

5th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fee Sen Sei (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jie Rui C (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Clinton Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs James Lim Jit Koon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs An Zhu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Brandon Peh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.50
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.98
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan

33rd • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Theodore Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chung Si Chia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Teo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Dave Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Keith Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.55
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Darrell Yeo

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gary Lee (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daren Choo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Te Fu Heng (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Aloysius Goh

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryan Tang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kai Yang Yuen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Cheah (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Deitrich Mohan

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jie Rui C (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Clinton Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Reynold Lam

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Tim Yap (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs shirui wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alfian Poon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.