Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Benjamin Lim

15th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

4.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lee Mason (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Willis Tay (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs yaqiong Ju (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ping How Ng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Seb Kho (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sebastian Lim (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.62
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.42

Isaac Teo

37th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Melvin Chow (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Denny Koh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Aaron Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Melvin Chew (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Xiao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.44
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Lu Wei Soh

42nd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Baron Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lee Mason (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xiaonan Zou (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Winter Fong (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Soh zheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Denny Sunarjo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.90
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Kyle Tang

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Seb Kho (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thaddius Ho (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vivekraj Kannalagan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dale Low (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.54
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Gabriel Lee

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Winter Fong (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Soh zheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dawei Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.21
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Neo Teng Whay

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Looi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ping How Ng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs An Zhu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Keith Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Chung Si Chia

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wei Ern Soh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dawei Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Alfian Poon

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Yap (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Reynold Lam (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.51

Vivekraj Kannalagan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marco Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Tang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.55
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.