Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ming Xuan Loh

dropped • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Prisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Malcolm Song (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Chew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.38
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Baron Chan

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Xiao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.57

Hermann Yeo

dropped • 2-1-0

Meta

+1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Lim Jit Koon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Clarence Foo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Yap (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.13
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.90

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.