Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

yaqiong Ju

30th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

5.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hilmi Halim (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Waynne Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Lim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Alaric Ng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Denny Sunarjo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Fu Kah Deng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.42
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.42

Gideon Law

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Lim (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darren Goh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lee Mason (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Thaddius Ho

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Soh zheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Tang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.