Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sebastian Lim

23rd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gideon Law (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sherry W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Fu Kah Deng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Benjamin Lim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.88
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.85
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Alaric Ng

28th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

6.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darren Goh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Keith Ang (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs shirui wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs yaqiong Ju (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs shao hong koh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

15:85

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gary Lee (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.30
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.39
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Win	✗	0.83	5.17

Jayden Yap

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dave Chia (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eugene Lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Zachary Tng

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wesley Hung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs shao hong koh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.