Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

kc wong

27th • 3-2-1

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ho Wei jie. (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jamen Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Farid Farhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jason Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Draw vs Christopher Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jia Zheng Yeo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.71
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.50

Wesley Hung

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Tng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Toh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jia Zheng Yeo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Yu Heng Chew

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daren Choo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Cheong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.67
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.