Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Keith Ang

9th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Low (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alaric Ng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Willis Tay (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Timothy Teo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Daniel Toh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.83
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.52
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Jie Rui C

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Ooi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Christopher Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 23:77

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Keith Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Adam Cheah

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jia sheng Hoe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Keith Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aloysius Goh (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.