Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kyoungsoo Kim

21st • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sangwon Kwon (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeong Ho Shin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Brice Vanbesien (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yo seop Lee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Sinho Seol (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R7	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Keeseob Choi

17th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs SANG JIN HWANG (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Clayton Gowen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Choi Tae seong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs 조 윤재 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brian Fields (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andy Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Hyunwoo Choi

24th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Cassidy (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs TAEWOO KWON (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kyeong Pil Baek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Austin Marshall (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jeongwoo Cho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Austin Marshall

25th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Seongyu Kim (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sinho Seol (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs SANG JIN HWANG (Unknown)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs JISU HAN (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hyunwoo Choi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Collin Scanley

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wookyung Park (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sang Hwa Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.97
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Jeong Ho Shin

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 조 윤재 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyoungsoo Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sinho Seol (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Sulbin Park

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Clayton Gowen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sangwon Kwon (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyeong Pil Baek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.24

Yong Hee Kim

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Younghyun Jeong (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sang Hwa Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Woosang Kim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

wooram Oh

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jaehwan Kwak (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yo seop Lee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 진영 우 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.