Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

song kyunghwan

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs kyuseok hwang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs JUNG MOO SUNG (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ugo Henson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

HyoungJun You

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 제윤 장 (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ahn Hyowon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Woosang Kim

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cameron Bradley (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yong Hee Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Ahn Hyowon

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs JUNG MOO SUNG (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Juntaek Lim (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs HyoungJun You (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.97
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mingyu Choi

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Fields (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.