Katsu, the Wanderer at National Championship 2025 - South Korea
Katsu, the Wanderer
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yong Hee Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Choi Tae seong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jaehwan Kwak (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54
Round 7: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Andy Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Clayton Gowen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Choi Tae seong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25
Round 11: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.