Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Choi Tae seong

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giovanni Prinzivalli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Younghyun Jeong (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Keeseob Choi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hojin Choi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Younghyun Jeong (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.21
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Andy Kim

11th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bae hamin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kim Minki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Seongyu Kim (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Younghyun Jeong (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Keeseob Choi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.65
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.44
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.23

TAEWOO KWON

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Suk ju Lee (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Seongyu Kim (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hyunwoo Choi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

진영 우

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kim Minki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs wooram Oh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.