Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sang Hwa Lee

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hojin Choi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yong Hee Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Collin Scanley (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.22
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.33

Giovanni Prinzivalli

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Choi Tae seong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs SANG JIN HWANG (Unknown)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs JISU HAN (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Mu Kyun Kim

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Dong-Hee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bae hamin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs kyuseok hwang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.