Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025 - Spain
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
17th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Juan Antonio Sanchez Arbos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Miw Valle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Rodrigo Peinado (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Preciado Espitia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
14th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.8
Surp
4.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Albert Serrano Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Borja Apellaniz Aparicio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs David Pantoja Sánchez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Daniel Correas (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
29th • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jose vicente Rodriguez Palazon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Loss vs Pol Pérez Ribera (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Víctor Tejera (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Adrián Marín (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Preciado Espitia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Pablo Álvarez Castillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
34th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
3.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Pol Pérez (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alberto Hilario (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Santiago Gullón Escobar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Alejandro Garcia Lliso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Alejandro Gurrea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
41st • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ferran Riu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Durán (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs David Gómez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jorge Vila Tomás (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Josep Tarrida (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Pol Pérez Ribera (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Diana Toboso (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.