Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ismael Ruiz Fernandez

36th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josep Tarrida (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Pantoja Sánchez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Iván Gómez Segovia (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Victor Ruiz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Cristian Codes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Diana Toboso (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.18
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.81

Sergio Sanz Guerrero

28th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ferran Riu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Rivas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Albert Serrano Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nicolas Scandalis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sergio Nieto Becerra (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.24
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

MARC JOSÉ VENTURA

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Labiano Serrano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alberto Ferrero González (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs David Roldán Nogal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.79

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.