Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Fernando García-casarrubios

46th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Morgado Morata (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alberto Hernández Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Scandalis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Guillermo Vergara Vazquez (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alejandro Gurrea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.15
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Javier Endika García Campo

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Roldán Nogal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Moises Garcia (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mario Donoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.01
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Yahir Peñarrubia

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Miw Valle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ferran Riu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.