Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

2nd • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

7.9

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cristian Codes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josep Giné (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nicolas Scandalis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jesus Garcia Gomez-Valades (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Mariano Rivero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Juan Lucas Sánchez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

R15

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.09
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.35
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.00
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.70	2.34
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.41
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.71
R15	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gustavo Caperan

5th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rodrigo Peinado (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Albert Serrano Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alberto Hernández Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jose Antonio Del Hoyo Cuenda (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.09
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Alberto Hernández Martin

20th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Preciado Espitia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Ruiz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Josep Tarrida (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.52
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.62

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.