Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

2nd • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

6.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cristian Codes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josep Giné (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nicolas Scandalis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jesus Garcia Gomez-Valades (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Mariano Rivero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Juan Lucas Sánchez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R15

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.35
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.85
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.95
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.99
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gustavo Caperan

5th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rodrigo Peinado (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Albert Serrano Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alberto Hernández Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jose Antonio Del Hoyo Cuenda (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Alberto Hernández Martin

20th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Preciado Espitia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Ruiz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Josep Tarrida (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.53
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.63

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.