Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mariano Rivero

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

5.5

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Rivas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Alfonso (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Pablo Álvarez Castillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.16
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.07
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.75
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jose Luis Saenz Soria

10th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alejandro Gurrea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josep Tarrida (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Jose Iglesias Lopez (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jose Antonio Del Hoyo Cuenda (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Juan Lucas Sánchez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nicolas Scandalis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.64

Alejandro Gurrea

42nd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Amorín García (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.29
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.