Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Spain
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
44th • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
4.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Diana Toboso (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cristian Codes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 15:85
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Alberto Ferrero González (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs David Roldán Nogal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40
Round 12: Win vs Iván Gómez Segovia (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.