Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Gómez

31st • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Labiano Serrano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pol Pérez Ribera (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Víctor Tejera (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alberto Ferrero González (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rodrigo Peinado (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.06
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.43
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.83
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Juan Chacon

18th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

4.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

95:5

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Perry Austin (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 96:4

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Antonio Del Hoyo Cuenda (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Josep Tarrida (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alberto Hilario (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	95%	Win	✓	0.04	0.02
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.43
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.57
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Enrique Raya

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alejandro Garcia Lliso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Víctor Sánchez Parrondo

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sergio Nieto Becerra (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Jose Iglesias Lopez (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.