National Championship 2025 - Spain - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Gómez

31st • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Labiano Serrano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pol Pérez Ribera (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Víctor Tejera (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alberto Ferrero González (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rodrigo Peinado (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.27
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.36
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.86
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Juan Chacon

18th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

4.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Perry Austin (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Antonio Del Hoyo Cuenda (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Josep Tarrida (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alberto Hilario (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.36
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.38
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Enrique Raya

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alejandro Garcia Lliso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Víctor Sánchez Parrondo

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sergio Nieto Becerra (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Jose Iglesias Lopez (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.