Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025
Dash I/O
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lucas Buccos (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Round 6: Win vs Joao Morato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Henrique Gouvêa (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
43rd • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Iasmin Dias (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Lavorato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
10:90
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs João Foltran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs João Pereira (Unknown)
Round 5: Loss vs Elias Luiz de Oliveira Neto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brian Zambelli Tello (Unknown)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs João Gabriel Neves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 10% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Arthur Murta (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alan Souza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joao Morato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs João Foltran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas de Lima Goes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 10% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Phelipe da Hora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Fabrício Cândido (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Martin Rodriguez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Guilherme Perego (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 11:89
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Juan Traverso (Unknown)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nick Yori (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.