Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025 - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Aquino

5th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Buccos (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joao Morato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Henrique Gouvêa (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.25
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.12
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.44
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

DOUGLAS CHAGAS

43rd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Iasmin Dias (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Lavorato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs João Foltran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs João Pereira (Unknown)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elias Luiz de Oliveira Neto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brian Zambelli Tello (Unknown)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs João Gabriel Neves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Otavio Oliveira

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Murta (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alan Souza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joao Morato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs João Foltran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas de Lima Goes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.20
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Sebastián Llano

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phelipe da Hora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Fabrício Cândido (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Rodriguez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Guilherme Perego (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Micael Martinazzi

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Juan Traverso (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexandre Castanheira

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Yori (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.