Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rafael Luz

34th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Yori (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony de Oliveira Voltz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs JULIO LOBO (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fabricio Talmas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Raphael Almeida (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sandro Ferreira (Unknown)

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Joao Morato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Guilherme Perego

48th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phelipe da Hora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuri Sacchi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mateus Batista (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastián Llano (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cristiano Amaral (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sandro Ferreira (Unknown)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tales de Mesquita Simioni

60th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eliseu Moreno (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Rocha (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Ricardo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Barros (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Fernandes Andrade (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Juan Traverso (Unknown)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Codato (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.10

Arthur Murta

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Otavio Oliveira (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fabrício Cândido (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.