Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
70th • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Cunha (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Arthur Murta (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastián Llano (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Felipe Lobo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Unknown)
Round 6: Win vs JULIO LOBO (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Charles Eduardo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.