Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025
Arakni, Marionette
2 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Draw |
Legend
Performance Metrics
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.