Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: São Paulo

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Airton dos Santos Junior

35th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alan Teixeira (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Artur Campos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alan Souza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bruno Assis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Murilo Ronsoni (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.08
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leonardo Lavorato

47th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Murilo Lixandrao (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs DOUGLAS CHAGAS (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Airon Luis Pereira (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vitor Negri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Elias Luiz de Oliveira Neto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.14
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.82
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Murilo Lixandrao

69th • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leonardo Lavorato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charles Eduardo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fabricio Talmas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Zambelli Tello (Unknown)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juan Traverso (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ian Geraldi Cordeiro (Unknown)

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Felipe Ciola Marino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Vladimir Del Valle

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Souza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Iasmin Dias (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pedro Henrique Antonio (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.19
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.