Kano, Dracai of Aether at Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025
Kano, Dracai of Aether
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Carlos Barros (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mario Cioffi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Murilo Lixandrao (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rafael Luz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ralph Abou Hala (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.