Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Bortolucci

3rd • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

5.0

Surp

4.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Geraldi Cordeiro (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Unknown)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alan Teixeira (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcel Moscatelli (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs João Foltran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.58
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.53
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.61
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.23
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.98
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Carlos Barros

64th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fabricio Talmas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cláudio de Salles Pupo Dias (Unknown)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tales de Mesquita Simioni (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs FELIPE ARAUJO (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs José Moreira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs João Pereira (Unknown)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Roberto Mautone Junior

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Fabris (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs João Zeni (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ralph Abou Hala (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Win	✗	0.86	0.96
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.