Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joao Morato

15th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ralph Abou Hala (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Henrique Gouvêa (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Otavio Oliveira (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs victor giovannini (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs João Marcelo Vieira Ramos (Unknown)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Aquino (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rafael Luz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Kevin Parra

dropped • 2-3-1

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Marcelino Vieira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Gabarron (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sandro Ferreira (Unknown)

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs José Moreira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Draw	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.57
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.34
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rafael Fabris

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roberto Mautone Junior (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Codato (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Yori (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.80
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.