Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: São Paulo 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Buddensiek

5th • 7-1-0

62%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Marcelino Vieira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Ricardo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony de Oliveira Voltz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

Nuu, Alluring Desire

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vitor Negri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Dorinthea Ironsong

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs victor giovannini (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

Jarl Vetreiði

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs João Foltran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.24
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

23rd • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Felipe Lobo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs José Moreira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Ferreira (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Prism, Awakener of Sol

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Everton Furtado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Arthur Rocha (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mateus Batista (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.19
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.26
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

39th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Gabarron (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Cunha (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Guilherme Perego (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas de Lima Goes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alan Teixeira (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony de Oliveira Voltz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gui Landgraf (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.05
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Martin Rodriguez

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuri Nascimento (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Singh Bruno (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maria Fernanda Correia Martins Corrêa (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Dash I/O

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastián Llano (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Henrique Gouvêa (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Victor Giovanetti

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vinicius Uemura (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Nuu, Alluring Desire

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Santana (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pedro Lecey Opitz (Unknown)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.