Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Christchurch 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dennis Zhang

10th • 8-3-0

55%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Hill (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Bastion (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Thomas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oliver Berry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ross Newson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jasin Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs aaron newson (Unknown)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nick Butcher (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.10
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.42
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.55
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.35
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

David Marshall

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Wolffenbuttel (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ross Newson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Santos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jed Lawless (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs James Lewis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Karl Wulff (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.81
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Dylan Strachan

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Katsakis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danne Blomfield (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cameron Hay (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs logan boyd (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sean Dryland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sage Walker

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Wellington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Wulff (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Klopper (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Bewley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Wakelin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tarei King

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs PJ Smith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jed Lawless (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Dryland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sam McCallum (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.