Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Christchurch 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dennis Zhang

10th • 8-3-0

55%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Hill (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Bastion (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Thomas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oliver Berry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ross Newson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jasin Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs aaron newson (Unknown)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nick Butcher (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.51
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.58
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.35
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

David Marshall

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Wolffenbuttel (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ross Newson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Santos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jed Lawless (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs James Lewis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Karl Wulff (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.60
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.81
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Dylan Strachan

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Katsakis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danne Blomfield (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cameron Hay (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs logan boyd (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sean Dryland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sage Walker

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Wellington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Wulff (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Klopper (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Bewley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Wakelin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.73
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.94
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tarei King

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs PJ Smith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jed Lawless (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Dryland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sam McCallum (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.