Calling: Christchurch 2025 - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Liam Fisher

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Arnesen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs logan boyd (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robert Piper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dave Laffan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.25
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.53
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Matthew Wakelin

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mathew Fletcher (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Caleb Sinclair (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Falconer (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cassandra Hancock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sage Walker (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Wolffenbuttel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.30

Quazi Tahmeedzaman

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Davison (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Hulse (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sarah Nicholas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs deja ballard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Bates (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dave Laffan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.76
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.33
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.78

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.