Fai, Rising Rebellion at Calling: Christchurch 2025

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jay Haskett

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Vaiese (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Greg Mansfield (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tamesi Harman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Hulse (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Klopper (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Joshua Wellington

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sage Walker (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Torr (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs aaron newson (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lachlan Buchan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Mathew Fletcher

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Wakelin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elijah Hewlett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs bill huynh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jared Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.40

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.