Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Christchurch 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-5-0
14%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jay Haskett (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dave Laffan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tim Wolffenbuttel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Johann Dickson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 16:84
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs deja ballard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Glover (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.