Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Christchurch 2025

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aidan Ward

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elijah Hewlett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Evans (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Falconer (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Vaiese (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tim Wolffenbuttel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jay Haskett (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.79
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ben Dodd

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rob Davenport (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jared Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elijah Hewlett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jed Lawless (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ben Clarke

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Middleton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Dryland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Olssen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs PJ Smith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.63
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.