Battle Hardened Bangkok 2025 - Fai, Rising Rebellion (CC)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emmanuel Onate

25th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ritwiset Namwiset (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ekalux Ua-areemitr (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thanat Chullamandala (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Natchanon kamhanghan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs sasawat sirakosol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.22
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.00
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Pongdanai Sriphueak

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Prakobhiran (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wannachai Panchai (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Natthapon Kamhaenghan

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fee Sen Sei (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nithis Chaidaroon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jiggy de Asis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Aphiwat Metta

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rati Chiewlian (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs sasawat sirakosol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natthakamol(nack) Rotboonma (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chantad Tanapisutporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

sasithorn sangjak

dropped • 1-0-0

Meta

+0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dendom Talpad (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (0.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.40

Kritapat Puengsupan

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jiggy de Asis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.