Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened Bangkok 2025
Arakni, Marionette
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
21st • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs kritsatorn saengweang (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thanapat Sing gam (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Win vs Thanachart Thongwat (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pedro Carvalho (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Wongsathorn Wongwanichjitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jakob Kernstock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
38th • 3-3-1
14%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pongdanai Sriphueak (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dachkone Vasonchuenchochai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Pariwiwat Manajit (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
Round 5: Win vs Thanachart Thongwat (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs kritsatorn saengweang (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Draw |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
44th • 1-4-2
86%
Meta
-2.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Maytichai Sakulpojworachai (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Witthawat Phanthanitlert (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Thanapat Sing gam (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pariwiwat Manajit (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Max Karl Pendrey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-1
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Max Karl Pendrey (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aphiwat Metta (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs kantanat poom chukiat (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Draw |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
0.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wachara Oranriksuphak (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.